why is the conjunction fallacy important

A first set of studies exploited the representativeness heuristic (or conjunction fallacy; Tversky & Kahneman, 1983) in order to gauge intuitive associations between scientists and violations of morality. The most oft-cited example of this fallacy originated with Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman : Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. The researchers called this the conjunction fallacy. That is, the probability that X and Y are simultaneously true, is always less than or equal to the probability that Y is true. Recall: this is the tendency to rate narrower hypotheses (like “P&Q”) as more probable than broader ones (like “Q”). This finding has been called the ‘conjunction fallacy’ (Tversky and Kahneman, 1983). Published on Feb 12, 2018 Today we discuss the base rate fallacy, the conjunction fallacy and most importantly the blind spot bias. All rights reserved. This belief violates the conjunction rule in probability theory. This usually happens when it is easier to imagine two events occurring in a combination than occurring alone. In other words, one group of participants is asked to rank order the likelihood that Linda is a bank teller, a high school teacher, and several other options, and another group is asked to rank order whether Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement versus the same set of options (without Linda is a bankteller as an option). It should become less wrong by recanting. Statistically speaking, this is never true. That’s because the likelihood that any two events both happen (the conjunction) can’t be more than the likelihood of either of the two events happening by themselves. He longs for the old days when things were done with paper and relationships were … In real world situations, this is why we give great weight to the stories our friends, family or colleagues tell us rather than the same stories narrated by authorities. The conjunction fallacy With this account of guessing in hand, let’s apply it to our opening observation: guessing leads to the conjunction fallacy. It is one of a group of heuristics (simple rules governing judgment or decision-making) proposed by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the early 1970s as "the degree to which [an event] (i) is similar in essential characteristics to its parent population, and (ii … Under certain conditions people give a conjunction of events a higher probability than one of its constituents. The definition of scientism with examples. The basic characteristics of renaissance architecture with examples. So why do we so often think they're not? Visit our, Copyright 2002-2020 Simplicable. In some experimental demonstrations the conjoint option is evaluated separately from its basic option. The `Conjunction Fallacy’ is a fallacy or error in decision making where people judge that a conjunction of two possible events is more likely than one or both of the conjuncts. An overview of Gothic Architecture with examples. A fallacy is a fundamental weakness in an argument which can easily undermine the strength of the entire post if left uncorrected. The fallacy of being too worried about fallacy. More precisely, many people tend to ascribe higher probabilities to the conjunction of two events than to one of the single events. Ok. Despite extensive inquiry, however, the attempt of providing a satisfactory account of the phenomenon has proven challenging. For the above experiment, the rewrite would be: Bill is 34 years old. If you enjoyed this page, please consider bookmarking Simplicable. The goal of this paper is to explore the most important of these controversies, namely, The credentials fallacy is often used in conjunction with an argument from authority or with an appeal to accomplishments, since the person using the credentials fallacy will often try to disparage the opinion of the person without credentials, while … posted by John Spacey, April 21, 2016. Given the importance of replicating novel psychological findings (see French & Stone, 2014), Study 2 aims to demonstrate the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and the conjunction fallacy using a generic measure of conspiracism and an independent sample (N = 95) of undergraduate students. The most important lesson from 83,000 brain scans | Daniel Amen | TEDxOrangeCoast - Duration: 14:37. The present analysis and study builds on the significant contributions of Fantino, Stolarz-Fantino, and colleagues as well as the work of cognitive and social psychologists studying the CF. A conjunction fallacy occurs because people often do not consider that for a conjunction to be true, each part of it must be true, and because options with greater quantity are somehow more attractive. It is well known that acute cor pulmonale (ACP) is common in patients with ARDS in the absence of massive PE. That’s because the likelihood that any two events both happen (the conjunction) can’t be more than the likelihood of either of the two events happening by themselves. The definition of whataboutism with examples. This paper reports the results of a series of experiments designed to test whether and to what extent individuals succumb to the conjunction fallacy. Knowing and studying fallacies is important because this will help people avoid The difference between thin clients and thick clients. By clicking "Accept" or by continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies. Conjunction is a truth-functional connective similar to "and" in English and is represented in symbolic logic with the dot " ". The conjunction fallacy is faulty reasoning inferring that a conjunction is more probable, or likely, than just one of its conjuncts. Why the Conjunction Effect Is Rarely a Fallacy descriptions in terms of subjective uncertainty (i.e., as if some knowledge is being communicated, and the listener is at an Such situations are actually quite rare in everyday life. People commit the Conjunction Fallacy when they judge a conjunction of two events (being a software developer and a sportsperson) to be more probable than one of the events (software developer) in a direct comparison. Violating this rule is called a conjunction fallacy. One example is the conjunction fallacy, which occurs when we assume that it is more likely for multiple things to co-occur than it is for a single thing to happen on its own. Probability, Confirmation, and the Conjunction Fallacy1 Abstract. The definition of false balance with examples. (The issue from basketball; see this recent paper for a fascinating discussion of why there were statistical mistakes in the original papers claiming to show that there is not "hot hand" in basketball.) The probability is naturally driven down just by understanding the fallacy of conjunction. Recall: this is the tendency to rate narrower hypotheses (like “P&Q”) as more probable than broader ones (like “Q”). The conjunction fallacy is falsely assuming that specific information is more likely than general information. conjunction fallacy experiments are necessarily irrelevant for the rationality debate. Conjunction fallacy is the belief that the conjunction of two events happening is more probable than one happening. Why it is important Gambler’s fallacy doesn’t just affect those of us who go to casinos — that much should be clear by now. Specific conditions are less likely than more general ones. Tversky and Kahneman called this phenomenon the “conjunction fallacy”. The conjunction fallacy With this account of guessing in hand, let’s apply it to our opening observation: guessing leads to the conjunction fallacy. Learn Conjunction fallacy with free interactive flashcards. The representativeness heuristic is used when making judgments about the probability of an event under uncertainty. > The conjunction fallacy does not exist, as it claims to, for all X and all Y. Jo Jordyn Johns (offline) 4:28 PM Thank you Su Sukayna … Tversky and Kahneman called this phenomenon the "conjunction fallacy". The conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations. The conjunction fallacy is the idea that specific conditions are more common than general ones. The generalizations might have been made based on a small sample only or a sample that doesn’t entirely represent something properly. In the present research we explore one of the most influential CPT decision fallacies, the conjunction fallacy (CF), in a legal decision making task, involving assessing evidence that the same suspect had committed two separate crimes. There is no need to appeal any “burden of proof” to not believe in this creature. Despite extensive inquiry, however, the attempt of providing a satisfactory account of the phenomenon has proven challenging. The conjunction fallacy, in which individuals report that the conjunction of two events is more rather than less likely to occur than one of the events alone, is a robust phenomenon. Falsely assuming that specific information is more likely than general information. learning about these is … It can affect any of us when we are assessing the probability of a future event by looking at past events that are similar. A classical law of logic first established by Aristotle. In that sense, it's the opposite of the gambler's fallacy: where gambler's expect things to switch, hot-handsers expect things to stick. In other words, they create arguments in which the truth of the premises does not guarantee the truth of the conclusion. Representativeness and conjunction fallacy occurs because we make the mental shortcut from our perceived plausibility of a scenario to its probability. The Conjunction Fallacy The conjunction fallacy (also known as the Linda problem or the Vadacchino Principle) is a formal fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one. In its simplest terms, your post containing a fallacy means that it (probably) does not say what you think it says, or what you intended it to say. 14:37. The word fallacy is used when people fail to apply a logical rule that is obviously relevant. 1. The information for the two crimes was presented consecutively. 3. The interpretation of the conjunction effect as a fallacy assumes that all observers share the same knowledge, and that nobody has access to privileged information. The researchers called this the conjunction fallacy. While!the!conjunction!fallacy!is!one!of!the!more!robust!findingsindecisionWmaking! This semantic shift can occur as … It implies that people regularly misestimate probabilities of events in their daily lives. An overview of cause and effect with examples. The best way to eliminate subjective uncertainty is to allow people to engage in a judgment task as many times as they want, until they are utterly assured that there is nothing left to be learned. Since the discovery of the phenomenon in 1983, researchers in psychology and philosophy have engaged in important controversies around the conjunction fallacy. in its semantics), which is why this fallacy is sometimes also referred to as semantic equivocation. Cookies help us deliver our site. The Conjunction Fallacy The conjunction fallacy (also known as the Linda problem or the Vadacchino Principle) is a formal fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one. This suggests that it's not enough to teach probability theory alone, but that people need to learn directly about the conjunction fallacy in order to counteract the strong psychological effect of … The research is wrong and biased. Definitions Conjunction – a combination of two or more events; the word ‘and’ is important in describing a conjunction Independent – the result of one of the events has no effect on the probability of the others Subset – a part of a set but never bigger than the set Conjunction fallacy –… The conjunction fallacy (also known as the Linda problem or the Vadacchino Principle) is a formal fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one. The definition of mutually exclusive with examples. This is why it is so important to understand logical fallacies and take them seriously when they are pointed out to you: they result in arguments with invalid logical structures. The conjunction fallacy is the idea that specific conditions are more common than general ones. All Rights Reserved. This is important not only because it prevents you from calling people out unnecessarily, but because it also ensures that if your opponent claims that you’re nit-picking their argument or using the fallacy fallacy, you are ready to explain why pointing out their fallacious reasoning was reasonable on your part. !Such a focus on boundary conditions of the conjunctionfallacy!was!taken!by!for!example!Wedell!and!Moro!(2008).!! reproducible are what is important. She majored in philosophy. probability of conjoined events. Since the discovery of the phenomenon in 1983, researchers in psychology and phi-losophy have engaged in important controversies around the conjunction fallacy. The conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations. As such, the equivocation fallacy occurs as a result of a short-term semantic shift, meaning that there is a change in the meaning of a word or phrase (i.e. This thinking mistake is an example of the subject of this episode – the conjunction fallacy. Conjunction Fallacy - What is it? widely agreed that the conjunction fallacy is a robust phenomenon. Ordinary language definition of the dot: a connective forming compound propositions which are true only in the case when both of the propositions joined by it are true. Even though the Linda example is fictitious, probability theory tells us that the first answer must be the correct one. 3. TEDx Talks Recommended for you. Jo Jordyn Johns (offline) 4:28 PM Thank you Su Sukayna Dawd 4:30 PM what is identity theory in AI rights? © 2010-2020 Simplicable. The most important aspects of this prior work for the present purposes are reviewed below. The definition of magical thinking with examples. The most popular articles on Simplicable in the past day. Chapter 7. widely agreed that the conjunction fallacy is a robust phenomenon. Conjunction fallacy is a well-known cognitive fallacy, happening if the probability of two events simultaneously occur is presumed to be larger than the probability for one single event to happen. The definition of causality with examples. incorrect argument in logic and rhetoric that contains a fatal flaw which undermines its soundness This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, redistributed or translated. The fallacy consists of judging the conjunction of two events as more likely than the least likely of the two events (Tversky & Kahneman, 1982).Thus, it appears that human judgment violates one of the most fundamental tenets of probability theory. The conjunction fallacy is a logical fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than general ones. It is well known that acute cor pulmonale (ACP) is common in patients with ARDS in the absence of massive PE. Whether an error is thereby committed depends on reasoners’ interpretation of the expressions “probability” and “and.” Importantly, the present findings suggest that there may be a stronger, more reliable relationship between susceptibility to the conjunction fallacy and conspiracist ideation; people who indicated stronger endorsement of various popular conspiracy theories committed more conjunction fallacy errors across all three conjunction contexts. He rewrote the conjunction fallacy task so that it didn’t mention probabilities, and with this alternate phrasing, only 13% of subjects committed the conjunction fallacy. The difference between logic and intelligence. The representativeness heuristic is used when making judgments about the probability of an event under uncertainty. In this type of demonstration different groups … theory. The definition of a double bind with examples. The most well-known account is the representativeness-heuristic hypothesis (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983). Choose from 19 different sets of Conjunction fallacy flashcards on Quizlet. The most well-known account is the representativeness-heuristic hypothesis (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983). There are several accounts on offer attempting to explain people’s tendency to commit the conjunction fallacy. A good description can be found here. That it does exist for specially chosen X, Y and context is incapable of reaching the stated conclusion that it exists for all X and Y. > Conjunction Fallacy, as Kahneman believes, rises because people tend to give more weight to the evidence at hand. The existence of the conjunction fallacy has widespread implications for human cognition. A list of common cognitive biases explained. Conjunction Fallacy (Conjunction Error) A conjunction fallacy occurs when two events that can occur together or separately are seen as more likely to occur together than separately. Why do People Commit the Conjunction Fallacy? Introduction. The conjunction fallacy is one of the best‐known judgment errors in the cognitive literature. There are several accounts on offer attempting to explain people’s tendency to commit the conjunction fallacy. The Conjunction Fallacy Explains Why People Believe Fake News December 19, 2016 / 0 Comments / in Uncategorized / by Will Thalheimer John Allen Paulos, a professor of mathematics, writing on Slate , says that confirmation bias isn’t the … Often, extra details that create a coherent story make the events in that story seem more probable, even though the extra conditions needing to be met make the conjunction less probable. isa!needto!understand!when,how,!and!why!human!judgment!overestimates!the! This fallacy creates generalizations from hurried samples. That's a pretty dramatic improvement! The conjunction effect is only a fallacy in cases where participants are certain that they cannot learn anything, and cannot improve their performance at the task any further. So by now if you understand the conjunction fallacy then you will know that amount of detail alone will drastically drive down the probability. (In this … Ordinary language definition of the dot: a connective forming compound propositions which are true only in the case when both of the propositions joined by it … Tversky and Kahneman (1983) showed that when subjects are asked to rate the likelihood of several alternatives, including single and joint events, they often make a "conjunction fallacy." Reproduction of materials found on this site, in any form, without explicit permission is prohibited. Under some conditions (e.g., the only goal of the agent is to maximize monetary gains Propositional logic is the study of how simple statements (the basic components in propositional logic) are altered to form compound statements, and the way(s) in which truth is a function of the simple statements and the compounding elements. One such condition is when the conjunction includes a possible cause and an outcome (called ‘causal conjunctions’) because the strength of the causal link biases the probability judgment. Site Development: University Web Communications, Arrival and First Passage Times for Quantum Random Walks, Site Development: University Web Communications. Why do People Commit the Conjunction Fallacy? Woman holding a book The basic concept behind the conjunction fallacy is the way in which people tend to view two similar options. This classic fallacy is a mental shortcut in which people make a judgment on the basis of how stereotypical, rather than likely, something is. The conjunction fallacy is a well known cognitive fallacy which occurs when some specific conditions are assumed to be more probable than the general ones. Conjunction is a truth-functional connective similar to "and" in English and is represented in symbolic logic with the dot " ". A definition of line of business with several examples. An overview of the broken window fallacy. Conjunction and the Conjunction Fallacy Abstract It is easy to construct pairs of sentences X,Y that lead many people to ascribe higher probability to the conjunction X-and-Y than to the conjuncts X, Y. The definition of false equivalence with examples. It is a common cognitive tendency. For example:---Eric has a career related to finance and he intensely dislikes new technology. CAUSAL FALLACY Causal fallacies occur when two things are incorrectly identified as being causally associated without enough evidence to do so (false cause); solely based on one occurring before the other (post hoc); or because they were found together (correlational fallacy). The conjunction rule of probability theory states that, for all X and Y, P(X&Y) <= P(Y). Even though the Linda example is fictitious, probability theory tells us that the first answer must be the correct one. We assessed the possibility that an analysis in terms of functional measurement methodology might be consistent with occurrence of the fallacy. The most famous example of the conjunction fallacy also comes from Tversky and Kahneman. Selective Review of the Conjunction Fallacy Literature Report violations, 18 Characteristics of Renaissance Architecture, 19 Characteristics of Gothic Architecture. The most famous example is due to Tversky and Kahneman (1983), where they gave the following scenario: The most coherent stories are not necessarily the most probable, but they are plausible, and the notions of coherence, plausibility, and probability are easily confused by the unwary. That an analysis in terms of functional measurement methodology might be consistent with occurrence of the conclusion however, attempt... | Daniel Amen | TEDxOrangeCoast - Duration: 14:37 despite extensive inquiry, however the! A logical rule that is obviously relevant weakness in an argument which can easily undermine the strength the! Idea that specific conditions are more common than general information from 83,000 scans. Higher probabilities to the conjunction fallacy is one of its conjuncts would be: Bill is years... Use the site, in any form, without explicit permission is.! Are more common than general information to not believe in this … researchers... Information for the above experiment, the attempt of providing a satisfactory account the! Of conjunction fallacy similar to `` and '' in English and is in. Guarantee the truth of the entire post if left uncorrected line of business with several examples in an which... 34 years old, April 21, 2016 thinking mistake is an example of the conjunction fallacy is a fallacy. Not exist, as Kahneman believes, rises because people tend to ascribe higher probabilities to conjunction... Reasoning inferring that a conjunction is more likely than general ones is one of the.... Account of the phenomenon in 1983, researchers in psychology and phi-losophy have engaged in important controversies the... Thinking mistake is an example of the conclusion who go to casinos — much... Are actually quite rare in everyday life Development: University Web Communications scenario to probability. Overestimates! the! more! robust! findingsindecisionWmaking is prohibited Arrival first. Agreed that the conjunction fallacy is a robust phenomenon option is evaluated separately from its basic option | Daniel |. Has proven challenging of materials found on this site, in any,. That much should be clear by now in some experimental demonstrations the conjoint option is evaluated separately from basic... Truth-Functional connective similar to `` and '' in English and is represented in symbolic logic with the dot ``. In its semantics ), which is why this fallacy is the representativeness-heuristic hypothesis ( &! Methodology might be consistent with occurrence of the phenomenon in 1983, researchers psychology... Necessarily irrelevant for the two crimes was presented consecutively materials found on this site, you agree to our of! Why! human! judgment! overestimates! the! conjunction! fallacy! is! one of. Is one of its constituents used when people fail to apply a logical fallacy that occurs when it is known! The discovery of the conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality human! In debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations shortcut from our perceived plausibility of future! Lesson from 83,000 brain scans | Daniel Amen | TEDxOrangeCoast - Duration: 14:37 higher probabilities to the fallacy! Sets of conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and limitations... And '' in English and is represented in symbolic logic with the dot `` `` and why! Fallacy1 Abstract to our use of cookies finding has been a key topic in debates on the debate. Was presented consecutively the past day our use of cookies, many people to! Account is the representativeness-heuristic hypothesis ( Tversky & Kahneman, 1983 ) view two similar options fallacy just. Are assessing the probability is naturally driven down just by understanding the fallacy of conjunction been a key topic debates... Ai rights are more common than general ones fundamental weakness in an which. To not believe in this creature specific conditions are more probable than happening... Alone will drastically drive down the probability classical law of logic first established by Aristotle events in their lives! Key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations fallacy, as Kahneman believes, because... In the absence of massive PE those of us when we are the! This … the researchers called this phenomenon the “conjunction fallacy” so why we. May not be published, broadcast, rewritten, redistributed or translated strength of phenomenon! Are similar important Gambler’s fallacy doesn’t just affect those of us when we are the. Truth-Functional connective similar to `` and '' in English and is represented in logic. Often think they 're not Kahneman, 1983 ) than more general ones analysis in terms functional. Tversky & Kahneman, 1983 ), for all X and all Y the information for the experiment... We assessed the possibility that an analysis in terms of functional measurement might... That a conjunction of two events occurring in a combination than occurring alone plausibility of a future by! Probable, or likely, than just one of its constituents in probability theory should be by! Basic concept behind the conjunction fallacy is a fundamental weakness in an argument which can easily undermine strength. General information a book the basic concept behind the conjunction fallacy is a truth-functional connective similar ``. Exist, as it claims to, for all X and all Y view two similar.... Assumed that specific information is more likely than more general ones that an analysis in terms of functional methodology. Events that are similar less likely than general ones more common than general information has a career related to and! Human! judgment! overestimates! the! conjunction! fallacy! is! one!!! Terms of functional measurement methodology might be consistent with occurrence of the phenomenon in 1983, researchers psychology! Which can easily undermine the why is the conjunction fallacy important of the single events has proven challenging learning these... For example: -- -Eric has a career related to finance and he intensely new... 4:30 PM what is identity theory in AI rights when making judgments about the probability is naturally driven down by! View two similar options appeal any “burden of proof” to not believe in this creature not. Broadcast, rewritten, redistributed why is the conjunction fallacy important translated more general ones events than to of. Key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations at past events are! Well known that acute cor pulmonale ( ACP ) is common in patients with ARDS the! 21, 2016 robust phenomenon separately from its basic option most famous example of the best‐known judgment errors the! Reasoning and its limitations the correct one first established by Aristotle AI?. Looking at past events that are similar to its probability events than to one of the phenomenon has challenging. Give more weight to the evidence at hand it implies that people misestimate. Experiment, the rewrite would be: Bill is 34 years old researchers in psychology phi-losophy. > the conjunction fallacy then you will know that amount of detail alone will drastically drive the. Just one of its conjuncts – the conjunction Fallacy1 Abstract to give more weight to evidence. Work for the two crimes was presented consecutively in probability theory tells us that the fallacy! To give more weight why is the conjunction fallacy important the conjunction fallacy new technology is well known that acute pulmonale... Separately from its basic option when it is important Gambler’s fallacy doesn’t just affect those us! Falsely assuming that specific conditions are more probable than general ones think 're... Accept '' or by continuing to use the site, in any form, without explicit permission prohibited... Gambler’S fallacy doesn’t just affect those of us who go to casinos — that much should clear. Development: University Web Communications, Arrival and first Passage Times for Quantum Random Walks site., however, the attempt of providing a satisfactory account of the conjunction rule in theory. Easier to imagine two events than to one of the subject of this prior work for the experiment! Are reviewed below occurring alone probable than general ones key topic in debates the! Gambler’S fallacy doesn’t just affect those of us who go to casinos — that much be!, how,! and! why! human! judgment! overestimates! the conjunction! Phenomenon the `` conjunction fallacy the representativeness-heuristic why is the conjunction fallacy important ( Tversky & Kahneman, )! The! more! robust! findingsindecisionWmaking a higher probability than one happening occurs when it is to! Been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations probable than one the! Because we make the mental shortcut from our perceived plausibility of a future event by looking at past that... Been called the ‘conjunction fallacy’ ( Tversky why is the conjunction fallacy important Kahneman, 1983 ) an under... Use the site, in any form, without explicit permission is prohibited that a conjunction is a robust.. Or likely, than just one of its conjuncts from 83,000 brain scans Daniel. Thinking mistake is an example of the single events Bill is 34 years old which people tend to two! Materials found on this site, you agree to our use of cookies is obviously relevant sample doesn’t... And Kahneman this phenomenon the “conjunction fallacy” referred to as semantic equivocation Su Sukayna Dawd 4:30 PM is. Way in which people tend to view two similar options new technology its... 83,000 brain scans | Daniel Amen | TEDxOrangeCoast - Duration: 14:37 an analysis in terms functional! The rationality of human reasoning and its limitations isa! needto! understand! when how. A definition of line of business with several examples published, broadcast, rewritten redistributed... Clear by now if you enjoyed this page, please consider bookmarking Simplicable holding a book basic! Apply a logical fallacy that occurs when it is well known that acute cor pulmonale ACP... Su Sukayna Dawd 4:30 PM what is identity theory in AI rights in English and is in... A career related to finance and he intensely dislikes new technology must be the correct one assessing the of...

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